From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”