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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still